- “Accelerant: a factor that makes something go faster, especially something that helps a fire to burn” – adapted from the Oxford English Dictionary
The Cover-Up Comes Apart
China has systematically suppressed information related to the impact of Covid on its population. For over two years – from mid-April 2020 until December 2022 – authorities promoted the fiction that the Mainland had experienced almost no deaths at all from Covid (despite acknowledging more than 100,000 cases of symptomatic Covid infections). Following the abandonment of the strict zero-Covid regime in December, leaked comments from Chinese officials, along with indications from other metrics (such as the number of cremations) have indicated that the pandemic has indeed struck with its full force. Hundreds of millions of people have been infected, hospitals have been overwhelmed, and death tolls are soaring. As The New York Times headlined
- “As Cases Explode, China’s Low Covid Death Toll Convinces No One”
The reality of a severe and continuing Covid impact is a major factor depressing the Chinese economy. The post-Covid recovery that was widely expected has not materialized. GDP grew less than 1% in the 2nd quarter. Exports and imports have plunged. Manufacturing activity is contracting. The country is flirting with deflation. Chinese stock market performance has reflected all this. Last month The Wall Street Journal declared that “China’s Lost Decade for Investors Has Already Happened.”
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