Is It Patricia Bullrich’s Moment In Argentina Or Just A Polling Error?

It’s hard to find certainty only days before a transcendental election, particularly in an extremely complex political ecosystem like the one in Argentina. In that context, and in a world where polling techniques have been seriously called into question after a succession of substantial erroneous calls across multiple major elections, the public has become extremely skeptical. Not to add the intrinsic corruption of the polling market, where both candidates and pollsters leak dubious reports in order to try and sway the public opinion and the political field. Thus, it is difficult to find someone to stick their neck out like the team at Atlas Intel, led by their CEO Andrei Roman who a few weeks ago suggested that Patricia Bullrich has a “nine out of 10” chance of becoming Argentina’s next president. His confidence, expressed during an interview on Modo Fontevecchia is tied to a late-July report released by Atlas that indicates that her lead over contender Horacio Rodríguez Larreta in the Juntos por el Cambio primary is essentially irreversible. Furthermore, her hypothetical victory in the primaries would set her up for a general election that would lead to a runoff with Economy Minister Sergio Massa which would conclude with a victory for Bullrich.

The Atlas Intel report goes in line with the aggregated average of polls being released in Argentina which shows a technical draw between the opposition coalition and the Peronists, both hovering around the 35 percent mark, with ultra-liberal economist Javier Milei trending toward the 20 percent region, as Federico Tiberti’s data showed. Interestingly, Atlas’ figures indicate blank and spoiled ballots would only reach around two percent, while undecided voters total some three percent. High absenteeism, together with blank and spoiled ballots have been one of the defining factors in several provincial elections and are expected to play a major role in the upcoming primaries, which generally result in a lower turnout than the general elections, despite having a similar or even greater chance of defining the next president.