Is The Consumer Economy In A Recession Or A Bubble — Or Both?

As an armchair social scientist, my view of the health of the U.S. economy is partly based on what I can see through my windshield—the interactions in my daily life. My consumer research career gives me some additional insight. And then there’s what catches my eye in the blizzard of headlines. Lately, those headlines seem out of sync with my experience and each other.

A TD Bank survey released last month found that 80% of consumers have changed their spending habits due to inflation. Yet inflation has fallen dramatically, from 9.1% last July to 3.2% this July, a rate above the long-term average but not by an alarming margin. Egg prices, for example, which shot up to nearly $5 a dozen, are back down to about where they were a decade ago.