The Growing Commercial Real Estate Threat Facing Our Economy

Yesterday I attended a fascinating real estate investors’ conference for hedge funds, lenders and owners. The talk of the conference was the almost complete inability of landlords (other than owners of tier 1 properties), to get any financing at all, except at exorbitant rates around 15% which is more than double the current financing that these buildings have in place.

This underscores what may be the greatest threat to the otherwise resilient American economy. We know that major banks and technology firms have recently been mandating return to office for three days or more. We’re waiting for post-Labor Day figures for some meaningful employee attendance numbers, but the national and New York attendance rates remain mired slightly below 50% for the summer. If current trends continue defaults will increase, and the treacherous triangle of (1) banks with increasing default rates on office loans, (2) building owners with failing properties and (3) cities with declining tax revenues will put the entire system at risk as well as the potential for a soft landing which is hopefully within reach.