The shockwaves from the nuclear explosion caused by Javier Milei’s surprise victory in the PASO primaries are still being felt across Argentina’s socio-political ecosystem. As explained previously in this column, the initial incredulity in the face of the ultra-libertarian’s pole-position finish in the qualifiers is connected to the lack of a cognitive and sociological framework of the intelligentsia to acknowledge and digest such a phenomenon. A failure to comprehend the incident led to it being characterized as part of a “craziness” tied to the outward projection of the character that is Milei, which in the face of his actual victory now renders his detractors paralyzed and unable to respond. The initial effect has been a consolidation of the libertarian’s position as the frontrunner, which has generated a complete change in expectations (which had its initial impact in the peso-dollar exchange rate, Argentina’s usual fear gauge). As it sediments, it’s beginning to leave its mark in opinion polls — all of which were completely off in the first-round vote, by the way — giving Milei an almost secured spot in the expected run-off, along with the possibility that he may even be able to win it in the first round.
While all of this talk is premature, as the second phase of the campaign has formally kicked off, observers and analysts are already trying to predict what a Milei Presidency would look like. Outside of his fan circle, the ultra-libertarian economist is scaring the bejesus out of the “círculo rojo” (or group of politicians, business and opinion leaders, journalists, intellectuals and others) that populates the country’s socio-cultural elite. Increasingly there appears to be a sense that, if and when the Austrian economic school-obsessed economist makes it to the Casa Rosada, his policy plan coupled with an irascible temper will lead to an implosion of his administration, perhaps within months of taking office. This also seems absolutely premature, given the general election is still two months away, yet the increased scrutiny surrounding Milei has raised certain troubling elements to the fore. Before digging around a bit further, it is fair to raise an objection presented by his followers: Why are we scrutinizing Milei so closely, when Sergio Massa and Patricia Bullrich have several troubling precedents that have become public at some point, and should be brought to the table with equal candour by the media? The answer, I believe, is the novelty of the Milei phenomenon, coupled with the bizarreness of the case.
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