I made O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) a Long Idea in March 2022. Below I’ll show why ORLY still offers attractive risk/reward and how the stock could be worth at least $1,091/share today, or 27% higher than the current price.
ORLY Offers Favorable Risk/Reward Based on:
- growing demand for vehicles and, in turn, parts
- rising miles traveled, which drives demand for more maintenance
- continued expansion in the company’s store network
- the company’s profitability moat
What’s Working
New Vehicles Will Drive Demand: Though the Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the global internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle fleet to peak in 2038, the growth in electric vehicles (EV) will drive expansion of the global vehicle fleet to 2.2 billion vehicles in 2050. This growth is large enough to offset the lower maintenance need of EVs compared to ICE vehicles.
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