Markets See Fed Backing Away From A November Rate Hike

It recent weeks, the chances of the Federal Reserve hiking at their next November 1 interest rate decision appear to have diminished, in part, as longer bond yields have risen somewhat. Market expectations currently give a 1 in 10 chance of an interest rate hike in November, and statements from Fed officials in recent days have generally sounded a little more dovish, though not uniformly so.

Prior to this at the Fed’s meeting on September 20, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and the Summary of Economic Projections both suggested a relatively even chance of another interest rate hike in 2023. Of course, there still could be another rate hike, but it now seems more likely to come in December than in November, at least according to fixed income markets.