Progress at COP28 on structuring carbon (dioxide) offset markets will be in the right direction; but there is a serious risk of the resulting prices being too low and jeopardizing the future health of the planet.
The global market for carbon offsets falls under Article 6.4 of the Paris climate agreement. A study jointly conducted by the International Emissions Trading Association and the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland provides price forecasts for this market. The inflation adjusted forecasted market price per metric ton of carbon dioxide for the year 2030 is $27, and for 2050 is $175.1 In order that these prices be effective at keeping the global temperature increase below 2°C,, they need to be close to their respective social costs of carbon. Numbers are important here, and unfortunately, $27 and $175 are simply too low to do the job effectively.
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