2022 was a dramatic year in markets, economies and across geopolitics. 2023 may bring more of the same and even greater change. David Skilling and I have written that the next year(s) could be characterised by Clausewitz’ dictum that politics can be ‘war by other means’ in the sense that strategic competition between the large regions will be the dominant theme acting on international political economy. In this note, we focus on a key element of this – the plight of democracy.
The strategic competition between big powers has been framed (by President Biden among others) as democracy versus autocracy. This not an entirely accurate framing, but it does capture something. Western societies that are internally divided, with weak political institutions, have been limited in being able to compete effectively. And high-performing autocracies like China have rapidly developed competitive strength.
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