The administration formally led by President Alberto Fernández but under the de facto control of Economy Minister Sergio Massa has definitely assimilated the blow of a brutal run on the peso that pushed it to the edge. Massa is resilient, much more so than his predecessors, but even he has a limit, despite counting on the tacit support of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the “lender of last resort” when it comes to the political capital backstopping this slow-motion train wreck of a government. As a fearful population watches news on TV and online showing the black market “dólar blue” flirt with 500 pesos per greenback, the economy minister and the rest of the political class is trying to figure out how to stop the meteoric rise of libertarian economist Javier Miliei, who’s political platform is based on the incineration of the Central Bank and the forced dollarization of the economy. Hanging on in quiet desperation, as the song goes, Argentines are once again hostages to runaway inflation and the evaporation of their purchasing power ahead of a triple election event that remains too far to even predict in what state we’ll arrive there, not to mention the end of the month.
The chain of events that will be most consequential in delivering the next inhabitant of the Casa Rosada have already been set in motion. They are irreversible. President Alberto somehow dreamed of re-election, even though the old fox was probably aware that his rejection figures and the erosion of his public image after three disastrous years in power made that impossible. Probably trying to avoid being a lame duck for as long as possible, he was expecting to renounce his candidacy as close to the deadline as possible, trying as hard as he could to paint it under some sort of patriotic light. Impossible– forced to quit his ambitions given the severity of the run on the peso, the government lost even further political capital and is now essentially left with just Massa. Fernández de Kirchner had already renounced any potential candidacy in one of those fierce rants against the Judiciary that she blames for all her problems under the guise of “lawfare.” She didn’t need to, it was clear that a presidential victory was out of her reach — as it was in 2019 when she had no choice but to pick Alberto, the blandest Peronist around in order to transpose her popularity and political backing — but she did have a decent chance at a Senate seat in the Buenos Aires Province, the Kirchnerite bastion that is most definitely under attack. Governor Axel Kicillof has been begging her to review her decision, as has son Máximo, both of whom know victory in the most populous province known as the “mother of all battles” is in jeopardy. As always, the lady plays her cards close to the vest.
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