There has been an unusually strong difference of opinion thus far in 2023 about where the US stock market, and the US economy it represents, are headed over the next several quarters. One side is worried about increasing inflationary pressures and is expecting an economic recession either later this year or early next year, which is bad for stock prices. And they have the data to prove it. The other side points to low unemployment, improving economic conditions, and lots of investor assets on the sidelines as indications of a great buying opportunity. They also have the data to prove it.
Personally, I am much more a staunch believer in just “following the money” as it moves around the financial landscape than I am in making bets based on future market expectations or economic theories. This means assuming that the flow of money ultimately wins out, and just riding that wave of money rather than trying to predict where the next trend may be.
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