What Is Venezuela’s Short-Term Oil Production Capacity?

In this article, I attempt to tackle the question of how much oil Venezuela could produce in the short term. That is, if restrictions by the US Treasury are removed in negotiations between Washington DC and Caracas. Beyond that, there are obvious questions regarding political stability, corruption, economic policy, and others, that will be approached in the future.

It is clear that the Biden administration is attempting to counter Saudi and Russian efforts to drive up oil prices, as they will affect inflation in an election year. Starting from Reuters in December 2020: “Sanctions on from Iran and Venezuela have blocked up to 3 million barrels per day (bpd), or 3% of world supply.” Professor Francisco Rodríguez, a Venezuelan economist in Denver, also calculates that about 59% of Venezuela’s drop in oil production since 2017 can be attributed to US sanctions. However, beyond responsibility for what already happened, what can we expect from the industry if sectoral sanctions are lifted tomorrow?