Bitcoin’s entity-adjusted NUPL signals heightened market uncertainty below $60k

Onchain Highlights

DEFINITION: Entity-adjusted NUPL is an improved variant of Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) that discards transactions between addresses of the same entity (“in-house” transactions). It only accounts for real economic activity and provides an improved market signal compared to its raw UTXO-based counterpart.

Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted NUPL has been in a downtrend since mid-2024, reflecting increased market uncertainty. This metric, which excludes internal transactions and focuses on external economic activity, has shifted from positive territory early in the year to neutral and now near-loss levels.