Miner capitulation risk still not elevated despite Bitcoin’s price drop

Quick Take

Miner capitulation risk represents the potential for miners to cease operations due to unprofitability, leading to a significant reduction in hash rate. A drop in hash rate can further exacerbate selling pressure as miners liquidate their holdings to cover operational costs.

This risk is assessed through two metrics — the Puell Multiple and the difficulty ribbon compression (DRC). The Puell Multiple represents an implied stress model, with low values signaling a higher probability of miner income stress. DRC is an explicit stress model, showing how much of the hash rate is coming offline.