Amazon Stock Outperformed The Q3 Estimates, What’s Next?

Amazon’s stock (NASDAQ
NDAQ
: AMZN) has gained approximately 58% YTD as compared to a 7% rise in the S&P500 index over the same period. However, at its current price of $133, the stock is trading 16% below its fair value of $159 – Trefis’ estimate for Amazon’s valuation.

Amid the current economic scenario, AMZN stock has seen a decline of 20% from levels of $165 in early January 2021 to around $135 now, vs. an increase of about 10% for the S&P 500 over this roughly 3-year period. However, the decrease in AMZN stock has been far from consistent. Returns for the stock were 2% in 2021, -50% in 2022, and 58% in 2023. In comparison, returns for the S&P 500 have been 27% in 2021, -19% in 2022, and 9% in 2023 – indicating that AMZN underperformed the S&P in 2021 and 2022. In fact, consistently beating the S&P 500 – in good times and bad – has been difficult over recent years for individual stocks; for other heavyweights in the Consumer Discretionary sector including TSLA, HD, and TM, and even for the megacap stars GOOG, MSFT, and AAPL. In contrast, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has outperformed the S&P 500 each year over the same period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment with high oil prices and elevated interest rates, could AMZN face a similar situation as it did in 2021 and 2022 and underperform the S&P over the next 12 months – or will it see a recovery?