Argentina’s De Facto Three-Round Electoral System Will Result In A New Political Landscape

Heading into the PASO primaries — which have become part of a de facto two/three-round electoral system — amidst absolute uncertainty, opinion polls and surveys are one of the few things analysts can look at to try and make something out of what’s happening. Interestingly, shifts in public sentiment appear to occur rapidly and in short time–spans, resulting in lasting and meaningful tendencies that are hard to break. In the world of biology and evolutionary science it is in some way related to the concept of punctuated equilibrium, by which the process of natural selection isn’t always gradual but rather shifts into high–gear in the face of certain circumstances that interrupt a state of stasis, leading to “strong selection and rapid change,” according to UC Berkeley’s Museum of Paleontology. Furthermore, at this juncture it is important to focus on what could happen during the PASO primaries and their immediate aftermath, as the general elections are so far out that it is almost impossible to imagine what could happen between now and then.

The main event of the night will be the showdown between Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich for the leading spot in the opposition ticket. In a tightly contested primary, the City Mayor had gotten off to a quick start, refusing to accept the status of candidate but clearly in campaign mode over a year ago. While he has proven an able administrator of the country’s richest district, his lack of charisma and a tectonic shift in the composition of the anti–Peronist ideology gave rise to two contenders, one internal (Bullrich) and another to the “right” of Juntos por el Cambio, Javier Milei.