Argentina’s Primaries Are Around The Corner And Everyone Still Has A Chance To Win

In the same manner as a college student pulling an all-nighter ahead of finals, in order to catch up on all the studying that wasn’t done during the semester, Unión por la Patria has anointed Economy Minister Sergio Massa as the (quasi) unity candidate representing the ruling coalition ahead of the PASO primaries. The cards finally dealt, Argentina’s political ecosystem will now do the rounds in a high-stakes three-round game of poker, the outcome of which will determine the future of the nation. Across the aisle, Juntos por el Cambio has seen the intensification of the primary battle between Buenos Aires City Mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and former security minister and PRO party (on-leave) leader Patricia Bullrich, demonstrating a certain Argentine incapacity for sportsmanship that isn’t too far from what candidates in the United States have us accustomed to, but that in a fragmented field could cost them dearly. Completing the main table and already having gone all-in is ultra-libertarian economist Javier Milei, the only candidate managing to connect empathically with a portion of the electorate and whose political novelty makes him completely unpredictable. With the first curtain of uncertainty lifted, it is go-time for the campaign.

A word must be said about the unruly negotiations that led to Massa’s candidacy, one that he’s been planning (not so) privately and denying publicly all along. Perfil’s Ariel Maciel has reported consistently on internal movements within the Economy Ministry in which Massa would resign leaving a placeholder minister in order to focus on the campaign. The fragility of the situation – with runaway inflation and the fate of the nation in the hands of Krystalina Georgieva and the International Monetary Fund – probably twisted his arm. As did the political developments that led to the formal and quickly withdrawn announcement of Eduardo ‘Wado’ de Pedro and Juan Manzúr as Unión por la Patria’s headline ticket. In the tripartite battle that has been this administration, President Alberto Fernández has insisted that holding primaries would strengthen the coalition, in great part as an argument to mask his weakness despite being the occupant of the nation’s highest office. A defensive move against Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s preferred method, pointing her finger. That’s how Alberto made it to the top, and the way the vice-president probably wanted to play it. But she’s not the same anymore – she later admitted as much at an event alongside Massa in which she explained that ‘Wado’ was her candidate but he was “vetoed” by Alberto with the support of Peronist provincial governors.