Jerome Powell’s favorite bond market gauge flashes recession warning sign

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s favorite bond market gauge is signaling that a recession is in the cards for the U.S. economy this year and that interest rate cuts may be on the horizon.

The spread between the yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months fell 134 basis points, the steepest inversion since January 2001, about two months before the economy entered a recession, according to