Despite A Strong Payroll Report And A “Hot” September CPI Inflation Continues To Cool

The newly declared “war” in Israel adds to global economic uncertainty. The human tragedy is, of course, horrific, and we are saddened by it. There are, however, unknown economic implications, not only around the military responses, but also involving fiscal responses and the implication for major oil producers. It’s too early to draw any conclusions, but, for sure, there will be economic impacts.

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While the Headline Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) number looked strong, a more detailed analysis of the jobs market says otherwise (see below). Unfortunately, this Fed does not appear to delve into the details; it just looks at the headlines. The markets know this, and, as a result, interest rate volatility has been significant, especially over the past two weeks.