Target (NYSE: TGT), the second-largest discount chain in the U.S., is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter results on Wednesday, November 15. We expect Target’s
TGT
TGT stock has suffered a sharp decline of 40% from levels of $175 in early January 2021 to the current levels, vs. an increase of about 20% for the S&P 500 over this roughly 3-year period. However, the decrease in TGT stock has been far from consistent. Returns for the stock were 31% in 2021, -36% in 2022, and -28% in 2023 (YTD). In comparison, returns for the S&P 500 have been 27% in 2021, -19% in 2022, and 15% in 2023 (YTD) – indicating that TGT underperformed the S&P in 2022 and 2023. In fact, consistently beating the S&P 500 – in good times and bad – has been difficult over recent years for individual stocks; for heavyweights in the Consumer Staples sector including WMT, PG, and COST, and even for the megacap stars GOOG, TSLA, and MSFT. In contrast, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has outperformed the S&P 500 each year over the same period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment with high oil prices and elevated interest rates, could TGT face a similar situation as it did in 2022 and 2023 and underperform the S&P over the next 12 months – or will it see a recovery?
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