Putin Continues Using Black Sea Grain Export Deal As Bargaining Chip

Grains are the headline story, but oil is really the key factor in Russia’s repeated decisions to renew the agreement.

Russia will likely extend the Black Sea grain export corridor again, and that’s no surprise. Russian exports of wheat, oil, fertilizer, and other products are all heavily dependent on an open Black Sea corridor, which means Russia would be crippling its own export business by not renewing the deal that expires this coming Monday, July 17th.

By now most people know that Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, and that Russia exports about four times more wheat than Ukraine, which means renewing the deal helps Russia more than anyone. In fact, some private analysts believe weekly levels of Russian wheat exports will be at record levels this month, so Russia has good reason to extend the deal.