Russian Grain Deal Exit Raises Black Swan Threat No One Talks About

Russia ups the ante to pressure the West for concessions, but now risks for an escalation of hostilities are higher too. The world should take notice.

Russia’s surprising exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative raises the risk of a major Black Swan event that could shock the global economy. Most Black Sea war pundits are fond of raising the possibility of some sort of nuclear event – be it use of a tactical weapon or the destruction of a nuclear power plant – as the Black Swan event that is most likely to occur. But that’s not nearly as realistic a worry as a potential disruption of commercial shipping out of the Black Sea, which could have major negative repercussions on the entire global economy.