September has been the weakest month of any year. The coming week is OPEX (options expiration week). This week has been up slightly since 1985. Most of the strength is early in the week; the gains tend to evaporate late in the week. However, the next week is post-OPEX week (18th through the 22nd) which is close enough to the most bearish week in any year, September 19-26, up only 34% of the time. The bears will likely be happiest in the last half of this month.
It appears too risky to buy stocks in this week. The viable strategies are to sell short in anticipation of the weak second half, or to look out to October for buy candidates.
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