The bond market is acting like it’s 1969, when rising yields preceded a recession, JPMorgan says

• The surge in long-duration Treasury yields mirrors the 1969 Fed tightening cycle, JPMorgan said.
• That year, yields rose for three months after the final Fed interest rate hike.
• The trend ended with a recession, and today’s yields might only stop climbing when a downturn kicks in.

With the Federal Reserve’s interest rates on pause since July, the upswing in long-duration Treasury yields is not a typical market reaction, according to JPMorgan. 

In a note Wednesday, analysts pointed out that in the last 12 Fed tightening cycles, bond markets generally went through a bull steepening — when short-term rates fall faster than long-term rates  — after the final rate hike.