- Economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago predict inflation will cool without a recession.
- In a September report, they broke down a Goldilocks outlook for a soft-landing scenario.
- Further rate hikes may not be needed, and inflation could dip below 2% by next year.
The US economy may just skirt a recession after all and most of the effects of rate hikes have already taken shape, according to Stefania D’Amico and Thomas King, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
In a new September report, they argued that the 11 rate hikes since March of 2022 have put the economy on track for a Goldilocks scenario of a soft landing, and there may no longer be a need for further monetary policy tightening.
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