The most closely watched recession indicator is telling markets that a downturn won’t materialize for another 2 years, Credit Suisse chief stock strategist says

• The most closely watched recession indicator is saying a downturn won’t happen for another two years.
• That’s because the Treasury futures market suggests the yield curve inversion will last until 2026, Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Golub said.
• Golub predicted a downturn to strike in August 2025 based on historical data.

The most closely watched recession indicator is telling markets that a downturn won’t materialize for another two years, according to Credit Suisse’s chief stock strategist Jonathan Golub.

In an interview with CNBC this week, Golub pointed to the difference between the yield on the 2 and 10-year Treasury notes, which is currently flashing its largest inversion in 42 years. When short term bond yields surpass longer term yields, it is a notorious indicator of an incoming recession.