With Inflation Tanking And Economy Weakening The Fed Delivers An “Insurance” Hike

If you look closely at the far-right side of the chart and squint, you can see that Core Goods (ex-used car prices) and Core Services (ex-shelter) were both negative (slightly) in June. In addition, Jay Powell’s “go to” CPI sub-index, Services (ex-energy and shelter), showed up as a big fat “0%” in June. This made Economist David Rosenberg remark: “Memo to Jay Powell: mission accomplished.”

It appears that, Recession or not, inflation has been quelled. Nevertheless, more for credibility reasons than anything else, the Fed is going to raise interest rates another 25 basis points (0.25 pct. points) at this week’s July 25-26 meeting. Chief Fed hawk, James Bullard, is stepping down from his St. Louis Fed President position and says he won’t be participating in the rate setting discussions. We wonder if, as a result, the vote to raise will not be unanimous, given the presence of Austan Goolsbee, the new Chicago Fed President, who also happens to be a prominent economist in his own right.