As Government Shutdown Deadline Nears, Here Are The Likely Outcomes

The will U.S. will see a government shutdown without a full budget or continuing resolution by November 17. Most expect a continuing resolution to be passed, though only days remain to do so. At the time of writing, event-forecasting site Kalshi gives a 1 in 3 chance that a government shutdown occurs. However, if a shutdown is avoided, further work will likely be needed to pass a full budget.

Markets have paid limited attention to shutdown risks because a continuing resolution is expected. In fact, continuing resolutions have been the norm in recent years. Historically, going back to 1952, continuing resolutions almost always occurred, often into December or later, while a full budget is worked out. However, government shutdowns have occasionally occurred too.