What The Fed Will Be Looking For In October’s Unemployment Report

On Friday October 6, the Employment Situation report for the month of September will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Fed will be watching for signs that the job market is cooling. Inflation has now declined to levels closer to the Fed’s goal on recent figures, so jobs data becomes more significant. That’s because the Fed ultimately targets stable prices and full employment. With inflation perhaps becoming less of a concern, or at least a less extreme concern, the Fed can focus a little more on the jobs picture.

A Cooling Jobs Market

Over the summer, the jobs market has cooled somewhat. Unemployment ticked up to 3.8% in August, a level not seen since February 2022. In addition, having consistently created over 200,000 jobs a month since 2021, for the last three months the economy has added under 200,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, just three months of softer data may not yet be considered a decisive trend.