What To Expect From Thursday’s CPI Report

On Thursday October 12 at 8.30 pm E.T., the Consumer Price Index report for the month of September will be released. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) has been on a generally declining trend for much of 2023, but nowcasts suggest cooling core inflation will continue. That’s despite headline inflation ticking up due to rising energy prices for the month of September that the CPI report covers.

Recent Trends

Since March 2023 prices for goods and services have generally cooled. Prices are still rising, but considerably less aggressively than in the 2021-2022. That’s reflected prices across the three main categories that the Federal Reserve uses for high level analysis, namely, goods, services and housing. These are all seeing generally slower price prices with some annual declines across a mix of categories, especially in goods, from various foods to used cars.