What To Expect From U.S. CPI For The Remainder Of 2023

U.S. headline inflation has come down sharply from peak levels of summer 2022, but not yet enough for the Federal Reserve who are still planning further interest rate hikes. Will the remainder of 2023 reassure the Fed on inflation, or not?

Nowcasts

Nowcasts of inflation from the Cleveland Fed suggest that July’s CPI inflation may be less encouraging, than June’s data, with headline inflation showing an estimated 0.35% monthly increase and core CPI seeing a projected 0.4% monthly rise. These nowcasts combine the latest energy pricing data with other price and inflation metrics. July’s nowcast would represent a material spike over June’s monthly 0.2% rise for both series, if these forecasts hold.