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The Employment Situation Report for June 2023 will be released on Friday, July 7. May’s data showed the U.S. economy continued to add more than 300,000 jobs. This strong result was welcomed by markets, especially when combined with positive revisions to monthly job growth for the months of March and April. However, the unemployment rate did move up to 3.7%, testing the higher end of the range for this economic indicator that we’ve seen since March 2022.
The Sahm Rule
The increase in the unemployment rate may be statistical noise, but weekly unemployment data claims has been trending somewhat higher, too. This may matter because the Sahm rule for forecasting recessions signals that if the 3-month average of unemployment rises by 0.5% over its 12-month low, then we may be in a recession. This metric has a strong track record of forecasting recessions historically.
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