Markets estimate that the U.S. Federal Reserve is on course to hike interest rates by 0.25-percentage-points after its next two-day meeting on July 26. There is more economic data to come before then. However, the Fed’s own economic projections paired with recent comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the implicit forecast of interest rate futures all suggest a July hike is probable.
Specifically, the CME Fedwatch Tool currently sees a three in four chance of higher rates at the July meeting. Powell will deliver congressional testimony this week and may use that opportunity to clarify expectations for the upcoming July meeting.
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