Yield Curve Continues To Warn Of Coming Recession

The New York Federal Reserve model gives a two in three chance of a recession by July 2024. That’s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed far lower levels of yield curve inversion.

The model has a robust track record in calling recessions The Federal Reserve too suspects that economic growth may need to cool, in order to bring down annual inflation to their 2% goal, though recent CPI data has seen inflation cooling. The Fed’s own economists suspect that a recession could be near. However there is hope that a so-called “soft landing” is possible. That said, the S&P 500 has rallied so far in 2023, shrugging off recession fears.