Leaving Social Security Untouched May Drive 3.8M Seniors Into Poverty

Politicians love to say they “won’t touch” Social Security, as if leaving the program alone will protect older adults. In reality, a new study by two of my Urban Institute colleagues finds that failing to fix the program’s looming financial shortfall would throw 3.8 million seniors into poverty by 2045. Median promised benefits would decline by $5,900 (in 2022 dollars).

The study, by Richard Johnson and Karen Smith, found that ignoring Social Security’s coming deficit would hurt low-income seniors the most. Doing nothing would slash median incomes of the lowest-income 40% of households by nearly one-fifth. By contrast, the highest income 20% of households would lose about 5% of their income after age 62.