Why A House Bill To ‘Prevent’ A Shutdown May Increase The Odds Of One

Congress is in chaos with just 10 days remaining to avert a partial government shutdown. Over the weekend, negotiators for the center-right Mainstreet Caucus and far-right Freedom Caucus agreed on a bill that would continue government funding at reduced spending levels after the fiscal year ends on September 30^th. But nearly a dozen Freedom Caucus members are still refusing to support the deal, denying House Republicans the majority they need to pass their bill.

Counterintuitively, this failure of House Republicans to coalesce around a government funding plan may actually reduce the odds of a government shutdown at the end of the month if it persists. One need only look at previous government shutdowns to understand why this is the case.