It’s been six presidential elections since a nonincumbent front-runner at this point in the primary cycle had a national polling lead larger than Donald Trump’s right now. That candidate, George W. Bush, would go on to handily become the Republican nominee in 2000.
As the 2024 GOP candidates emerge from their second debate, recent history suggests they should be cautious about their chances of toppling the undisputed front-runner, who again skipped the event. The former president is supported by 58% of the potential GOP primary electorate, 43 points ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 15%, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls, an average of five national surveys from September 7-24.
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